Wasatch Travel HelperCollins Ensemble

Collins Ensemble

Total snowfall guidance from the University of Utah Collins station. Lines represent ensemble runs/percentiles (Min, P10, P25, P50, P75, P90, Max), and values are cumulative inches expected by each timestamp.

Collins Ensemble (U of U)

Cumulative snowfall (inches) — ensemble guidance

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6-hour guidance

This chart shows incremental snowfall per 6-hour period. Bars emphasize the typical (P50) run; toggle other percentiles to compare against lower and higher-end scenarios. The vertical “Now” line marks the current time.

6-hour Snowfall — Collins Ensemble

Incremental snowfall per 6 hours (inches)

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How to read these lines

Values are cumulative snowfall by the timestamp. Each line summarizes an ensemble of model runs to show a range of possible outcomes:

  • Min — lowest total among all runs (most conservative).
  • P10 — 10% of runs are at or below this amount.
  • P25 — 25% of runs are at or below this amount.
  • P50 — typical/average case across runs.
  • P75 — 75% of runs are at or below this amount.
  • P90 — higher-end scenario (only 10% of runs exceed).
  • Max — highest total among all runs (upper bound).

This is guidance from the University of Utah Collins station; real outcomes depend on storm track, temperature, and microclimates.

About the Collins Ensemble forecast

The Collins Ensemble is a snowfall guidance product derived from multiple model runs near the Collins study site above Alta in Little Cottonwood Canyon (40.579°N, 111.654°W, 9416 ft AMSL). It presents a range of possible outcomes for storm totals and 6‑hour increments so you can gauge typical versus higher‑end snow scenarios for the central Wasatch, including Alta and Snowbird.

How to use it

  • P50 approximates a typical outcome; P75/P90 show higher‑end scenarios, while Min/Max bound the ensemble.
  • Use the 6‑hour chart to spot timing and intensity windows (peaks often align with travel impacts on SR‑210 and resort operations).
  • Microclimates matter. Compare with NWS point forecasts, resort reports, and UAC discussions for wind, temperature, and avalanche context.

Update cadence & source

Data is sourced from the University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Sciences and updates periodically. See the official Collins ensemble page at weather.utah.edu. This page refreshes in the background while open and may apply short server‑side caching to keep things fast.

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